How to visualize an uncertainty in a time-dependent variable according to the principles of uncertainty visualization?
Here each line in Figure is one possible trajectory. This Figure is already very efficient, but it may be influenced by the choice of visualized possibilities. For example:
Visualizing a confidence intervals is a completely different approach. Instead of individuals possibilities, summary statistics are presented.
Here light blue colour marks the 99% confidence area (i.e. area where 99% of the trajectories go), while dark blue represent the 50% interval.
The confidence figure solves the problem of a ‘spaghetti-plot’ (The answer to the previous question is NO, it was just a coincidence). But it violates a few principles of uncertainty visualization: it may overemphasize the median estimates, and it stresses uncertain values over certain ones.
Simple solution (which could be not so trivial in the actual implementation): instead of fixed shades, dilute a colour concentration with the growth of the represented area:
This Figure consists of five ‘ribbons’, representing 1-20, 20-40, 60-80 and 80-99 percentile intervals of the trajectories. Colour of the ‘ribbon’ depend on its width. This Figures naturally points out the most certain (i.e. interesting) estimates.
Both the original and updated confidence figures had a problem. Summary statistics hide a lot of information. They don’t show is the trajectories are smooth or noisy, or if they are correlated. The solution would be to combine a ‘confidence plot’ with a ‘spaghetti plot’ and to put a few possible trajectories under the confidence intervals: